Trucking research institute updates Crash Predictor Model

Arlington, VA — The American Transportation Research Institute has updated its Crash Predictor Model, the organization announced July 31.

CPM looks at the statistical likelihood of future truck crashes based on certain behaviors – such as violations, convictions or previous crashes – by using data from 435,000 U.S. truck drivers over a two-year period.

This third edition of CPM includes the impact of age and gender on the probability of crashes. It also features average industry costs for six types of crashes and their severity.

ATRI, which is the research arm of the American Trucking Associations, highlights some of its key findings from its latest update in a press release. Among them:

• A commercial motor vehicle operator with a prior violation for reckless driving or a failure to yield the right of way had double the chances of getting into a future crash than a driver who had never been cited for either violation.
• Previous crashes translated to a 74 percent greater likelihood of a future collision.
• Women drivers were safer than men in “every statistically significant safety behavior.” Men also were 20 percent more likely to be involved in a crash than women.
• Convictions for certain violations have remained indicators of future crashes across all three models (2005, 2011 and 2018): improper lane or location; reckless, careless, inattentive or negligent driving; and improper or erratic lane changes.

ATRI also provides a list of states that “have proven track records of maximizing their enforcement resources while minimizing their share of the nation’s truck crashes.” The release states that Indiana leads the way, followed by New Mexico, Washington, California and Maryland.